Rally without big money. Chips and TSLA lifted QQQ 1.2%, but large orders sold about $2.2B net across SPY and QQQ into the close and SPY finished under its 50-day average again.
New lows beat new highs 373 to 148 and only 36% of stocks sit above their 40-day average, so this bounce is standing on damaged ground. A second day of large-order selling would confirm today was a one-day pop.
SPY 765.81, its 50-day average, decides it: four tries today and no close above it; a close through brings 767.38 (10-day) and 768.50 (21-day), while a slip under Friday's high at 763.47 reopens Friday's low at 758.68. QQQ at 712.25 holds above its 30-week average at 708.81, and as long as it does the chip lead stays alive, with 719.15, its 10-day, the next ceiling. Wednesday's 2 PM Fed decision, expected to hold at 4%, and MSFT and GOOGL after that close are the dated events most likely to break the range.
Easier rates and cheaper oil carried the session. Monday's two-year auction cleared at 4.708%, below 4.787% last time, and TLT closed up 0.36% while USO fell 2.23%, which takes pressure off both borrowing costs and input costs.
The VIX fell 4.8% to 18.51 and gold rose 0.32% alongside bonds, a calm, rates-led mix rather than a scramble for safety. Silver was flat at -0.10%, so metals did not chase the move either. The macro calendar was quiet otherwise; the Chicago Fed activity index ticked up to 0.07 from -0.08.
• SGRY — HealthSpan Partners agreed to acquire Surgery Partners — up 47.7% on $1.4B traded, about 35 times its usual volume.
• RRC — EQT is buying Range Resources to build the largest US natural gas producer — up 17.7% on $1.4B.
• TSLA — full self-driving won approval in Latvia, its tenth EU country — up 5.2% on $20.7B, the most-traded stock of the day.
• INTC — the biggest chip mover by money after its earnings — up 4.3% on $8.8B, pulling SOXL up 8.6%.
• WHR — Whirlpool reported third-quarter results — down 8.6% on about 2.6 times normal volume, the worst large loser.
• ZLAB — Zai Lab announced a $250 million private placement — down 5.2%.
• CART — Instacart filed an 8-K announcing restructuring costs — up 8.2% on $1.9B, ten times its usual volume.
• SSD — Simpson Manufacturing posted results, updated guidance and approved a new $1.0 billion buyback after the close.
| Ticker | Price | Trigger | Target | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $SGRY | 23.26 | — | — | Stage 1B |
| $RRC | 53.56 | — | — | Stage 3A |
| $LITE | 821.00 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $CART | 60.90 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $S | 25.50 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $COHR | 221.92 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $BE | 204.91 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $TSLA | 391.50 | — | — | Stage 1B |
| $GEV | 855.12 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $TXN | 298.60 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $WHR | 24.18 | — | — | Stage 4B |
| $ZLAB | 23.08 | — | — | Stage 2C |
| $VEEA | 5.80 | — | — | Stage 4C |
| $AGYS | 117.80 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $BHVN | 13.92 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $AIOK | 8.86 | — | — | - |
| $NVCR | 13.96 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $SHW | 325.04 | — | — | Stage 1A |
| $WCN | 182.25 | — | — | Stage 1B |
| $CHWY | 21.45 | — | — | Stage 4C |
Leading: Technology +1.83%, Industrials +1.45%, Consumer Discretionary +0.62%, Energy +0.45%, Utilities +0.33%, Financials +0.18%, Real Estate +0.17%, Materials +0.14%, Health Care +0.13%
Lagging: Consumer Staples -0.46%, Communication Services -1.61%
Energy funds took the most money at about $2.2 billion, but rose only 0.45%, while technology led on price at +1.83% on $1.4 billion. The real chip money went stock by stock: NVDA $19.2B, INTC $8.8B, SOXL $8.7B, AMD $8.7B and AVGO $6.0B, with optical names LITE ($4.9B, up 8.2%) and COHR ($1.6B) joining.
TSLA was the single biggest stock at $20.7B. Staples lost about $1.2 billion and communication services nearly $1.0 billion. Large orders were net sellers of SPY by $1.13B and QQQ by $1.08B on the day, after being roughly even at 2:30 PM, so the size behind the rally left before the bell.
The day's movers were deals, chips and power. SGRY (+47.7%) and RRC (+17.7%) were takeovers, LITE, COHR and AAOI rode the optical-chip rebound, and BE and GEV led the power names ahead of earnings.
On the downside WHR (-8.6%) and AGYS (-4.6%) fell on their reports and ZLAB (-5.2%) on its share sale. No after-hours earnings gappers have shown yet from tonight's reports, including CDNS, CLS and NUE.
TXN rose 4.9% on $2.2B, one of the few chip names above a rising 21-day average, and S gained 6.5% to within 4% of its high. CART ran 8.2% on ten times its usual volume after a restructuring filing, and INTC and SOXL traded nearly $9B each as the center of the chip rebound.
First read of the session.
Lula's re-election in Brazil is the overnight story, and it split the US open in two. QQQ is up 0.49% near 708, just under Friday's high of 709.30, on chip strength, while SPY is off 0.25% at about 762, below its 50-day average at 765.83. IWM is down 0.24% near 276 and the Dow-tracking DIA is down 0.86%, so outside of chips the indexes are leaning lower.
Money is flowing into chips and oil and out of Brazil and staples. SOXL, the triple-leveraged chip fund, is up 4.8% on about $7.8 billion traded, with NVDA, AMD and AVGO up more than 1% and the SK Hynix funds up 6% ahead of Wednesday's report. On the other side, NU has traded about $1.3 billion on its 26% drop and PBR about $650 million on a 21% drop, while staples is the weakest sector at -2.09%. Big-order flow into SPY was about $1 billion net positive last session, but QQQ saw about $700 million of net big-order selling, so today's chip bid is not yet backed by Friday's large money.
Under the surface the market is thin: only 36% of stocks are above their 40-day average and new lows led new highs 191 to 70. The VIX is up 1.7% at 19.79 even with QQQ higher, and gold, silver and bonds are all slightly lower while oil rises 1.8%. Rising volatility next to a rising Nasdaq, with no bid for safety assets, usually means the gain is concentrated rather than broad, and those moves tend to fade by midday unless more groups join. The two-year auction at 1 PM is the first chance for rates to change that picture.
Since the pre-market: DIA flipped from a 0.86% loss to a 0.66% gain, oil reversed to a 3.1% drop and TSLA took the lead on $7.1B.
Oil's reversal did the work: USO went from up before the bell to down 3.1%, bonds rallied and the VIX fell 6% to 18.25. SPY opened above Friday's high at 763.47 and is pressing its 50-day average at 765.82, up 0.6%. QQQ is up 0.7% at about 710, back above Friday's high at 709.30 and its 30-week average at 708.75.
TSLA is the morning's money magnet at $7.1B traded and up 6.4%, more than the whole consumer discretionary fund it drags up 1.71%. NVDA ($4.2B) carries the rest of the tech bid. Energy is the most-traded sector at $759M yet down 0.38%. Large orders are net buyers in both QQQ (+$208M) and SPY (+$109M), reversing Friday's $713M large-order exit from QQQ.
Breadth is broad by count, 6,503 up against 2,919 down, but the damage underneath has not healed: 290 new lows against 127 new highs, and more 4% losers (336) than 4% gainers (302). Only about 1 in 3 stocks is above its 40-day average. Falling volatility and rallying bonds help, but bounces from this depth usually need a second day to stick.
Since the morning: chips took the lead, lifting QQQ to 713 and tech to the top sector, while oil's drop shrank from 3.1% to 0.6%.
The driver moved from oil to chips: SOXL is up 8.4%, INTC 4.2% and AVGO 2.5%. QQQ is up 1.2% at 712.76, holding above Friday's high at 709.30, while SPY is up 0.7% at 765.18, pressing its 50-day average at 765.80 for the second time today. IWM is up 0.8%.
Money is concentrated in a few large names: TSLA at $11.8B, NVDA $9.2B, SOXL $5.6B and INTC $4.1B. Communication services is down 1.20% on META's funding plan. Large orders are net buyers of both QQQ (+$226M) and SPY (+$191M) so far.
Breadth is strong by count, with two stocks up for every one down, and the big movers have flipped to the upside, 518 up 4% or more against 440 down. But new lows still lead new highs 290 to 124 and only about 1 in 3 stocks is above its 40-day average. A falling VIX with bonds and gold both up points to easing rates behind the bounce, which usually supports a second day if the two-year auction goes smoothly.
Since midday: the two-year auction cleared well, but SPY still sits just under 765.83 and large-order buying faded from about $200M to roughly even.
Rates were the afternoon's test and they passed: the two-year sold at 4.708% against 4.787% last time, TLT is up 0.43% and the VIX is down 5.5% at 18.38. QQQ is up 1.3% at 713.49, holding above Friday's high of 709.30 and its 30-week average at 708.87, with chips still in front. SPY is up 0.74% at 765.58, testing its 50-day average at 765.83 for a third time without closing through it, and IWM has cooled to up 0.58% from 0.8% at midday.
Chips took close to $48B: MU $14.9B, NVDA $12.0B, SOXL $7.0B, INTC $5.8B and AMD $5.3B, with TSLA at $14.9B on its merger talk. Optical and storage joined, LITE up 10.5% on $3.8B and WDC and STX up 5%, while BE (up 7.9%, $3.2B) and GEV (up 5.5%) carried power names. Money left health care ($1.0B), staples ($825M) and communication services, down 1.74%. Large orders are now about even in SPY and only $24M net in QQQ, so the afternoon bid is coming from smaller money.
The move is wide, nearly two stocks up for each one down, and 592 names are up 4% or more against 500 down. New lows still beat new highs 320 to 142, and only about 1 in 3 stocks is above its 40-day average, so the bounce sits on damaged ground. A lower VIX with bonds and gold up points to easier rates behind it. That usually earns a second day if Tuesday's five-year auction goes as smoothly as today's two-year; without large-order buying, a fade into the close is the risk.
Since 2:30 PM: SPY closed at 765.24, still under its 50-day average at 765.81, and large orders swung from even to $2.2B of net selling.
Rates and chips drove the day: the two-year auction cleared at 4.708% against 4.787%, oil fell 2.2% and the VIX dropped 4.8% to 18.51. QQQ closed up 1.2% at 712.25, comfortably above Friday's high of 709.30 and its 30-week average at 708.81. SPY rose 0.7% to 765.24 but tested and lost its 50-day average at 765.81 four times, and it sits below its 10-day at 767.38 and 21-day at 768.50. IWM gained a softer 0.41%.
The money went to chips and TSLA: TSLA traded $20.7B, NVDA $19.2B, INTC $8.8B, SOXL $8.7B and AMD $8.7B, with LITE up 8.2% on $4.9B and BE up 5.9% on $4.3B. Staples lost about $1.2B and communication services nearly $1.0B, down 1.61%. Large orders sold SPY by $1.13B net and QQQ by $1.08B, reversing midday's buying of about $200M in each, so the last ninety minutes were carried by smaller money.
Breadth was wide by count, 6,607 stocks up against 4,008 down, but the big moves turned negative by the bell, 579 down 4% or more against 506 up. New lows beat new highs 373 to 148, and only 36% of stocks are above their 40-day average. Falling volatility with bonds and gold both up says rates, not fear, fed the rally, but a bounce that large orders sell into usually needs Tuesday's five-year auction and Wednesday's Fed to go smoothly to last.
WHR (Whirlpool) — down 8.6% on its report in a rising market.
ZLAB (Zai Lab) — $250 million share sale weighs on the stock.
AGYS (Agilysys) — record quarter sold hard on heavy volume.
SHW (Sherwin-Williams) — slid 3% into Tuesday's report.
Tue 8:30 AM — Durable goods — first read on business spending this week.
Tue 1 PM — Five-year auction — a weak sale would undo today's rates relief.
Tue — V, KO, BA, STX — consumer, aerospace and storage demand checks.
Wed 2 PM — Fed decision — expected hold at 4%; the tone sets the week.
Wed after close — MSFT, GOOGL — the reports that decide the tech lead.
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