Narrow risk-on. Chips, TSLA and META lifted QQQ 1%, but large orders sold $2.1B of it and new lows beat new highs 220 to 147 even with 6,580 stocks up.
The gain rests on smaller buyers while large orders sold harder at every run today, so if TSLA and META give back their after-hours gains Thursday, little is holding the index up. A close by QQQ back above its 50-day average would prove the selling wrong.
QQQ closed near 725, under its 50-day average at 727.10: a move back above it after the TSLA and META reports opens 732.14, its 21-day, while staying under keeps it a bounce inside a downtrend. SPY holding above yesterday's 772.29 high keeps the oversold bounce going; a close under its 21-day at 770.28 puts the 50-day at 766.16 back in play. Thursday's 8:30 AM jobless claims, 200K expected, are the next test for a 10-year yield sitting at 5.15%.
Rates stayed out of the way all day: the 1:00 PM 20-year auction cleared at 5.46%, above the last one's 5.42%, and long bonds (TLT) still finished up 0.1%. Oil (USO) fell 0.7% as Zelenskiy backed a ceasefire and three-way talks with the US and Russia, even though crude stocks drew down 3.06 million barrels, far more than forecast. The VIX dropped 3.6% to 16.69 while gold (GLD) added only 0.3%, so nobody paid up for protection going into the biggest earnings night of the week. Bitcoin's bounce and a finalized stablecoin rule from the OCC carried crypto stocks, with MSTR up 7.6% and CRCL up 4.6%.
• META — reported after the bell under a 'double beat' headline — the stock is up 3.9% in late trading on $16B traded, from 1.9% into the numbers.
• TSLA — earned $0.48 a share against $0.43 expected on $28.05B of sales — up 4% on $16B, carrying the Nasdaq gain.
• IBM — third-quarter results topped forecasts, $2.95 a share against $2.85 — up 5.1% after hours on $2.1B.
• LRCX — an in-line quarter, $2.20 against $2.18 — down 6.3% after hours, pulling AMAT down 3.3%.
• SPCX — SpaceX's beat and analyst target raises kept it the most-traded stock in the market — up 7.6% on $34.5B, and it lifted RKLB 5.7%.
• CRCL — the OCC finalized its stablecoin rule under the GENIUS Act and Needham set a new target — up 4.6% on $1.2B.
• Ukraine — Zelenskiy backed a ceasefire and three-way talks with the US and Russia — oil (USO) down 0.7%.
• MDLN — Medline is pulling all its branded beds from the market at a cost of up to $220M — it says full-year guidance is unaffected.
| Ticker | Price | Trigger | Target | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $IBM | 264.30 | — | — | Stage 1B |
| $CSX | 50.64 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $ASST | 30.76 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $SMCI | 35.46 | — | — | Stage 2C |
| $APLD | 21.02 | — | — | Stage 4B |
| $MSTR | 153.37 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $SPCX | 158.90 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $BE | 240.78 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $MDB | 390.75 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $WULF | 12.83 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $HXL | 82.50 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $LRCX | 244.67 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $MEDP | 622.00 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $ROL | 31.50 | — | — | Stage 4B |
| $MOH | 203.44 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $URI | 1022.19 | — | — | Stage 2C |
| $LVS | 36.09 | — | — | Stage 4B |
| $UCTT | 50.30 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $AMAT | 395.50 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $SAIQ | 5.38 | — | — | - |
Leading: Technology +1.6%, Financials +0.52%, Utilities +0.37%, Energy +0.29%, Industrials +0.25%, Materials +0.18%, Consumer Discretionary +0.09%
Lagging: Health Care -0.49%, Real Estate -0.66%, Communication Services -0.72%, Consumer Staples -0.72%
Technology was both the best sector and the money leader, with about $1.8 billion through its sector fund, but Energy traded the same $1.8 billion and barely moved, which is repositioning rather than buying. About $4 billion went through the four falling sectors, led by Health Care's $1.5 billion even after DHR (+4.1%) and ELV beat. The single biggest stock by money was SPCX at $34.5 billion, then NVDA $18.9 billion (+2.5%), TSLA and META about $16 billion each, and AAPL $12 billion. Large orders pulled about $2.1 billion out of QQQ and $460 million out of SPY, while medium and small orders were net buyers of both, so the tech gain was bought by the smaller money.
After the bell the earnings reactions split: IBM (+5.1%) and CSX (+4.6%) rose on beats, while HXL (-8.2%), LRCX (-6.3%), MEDP (-6.1%), MOH (-5.3%) and URI (-4.4%) fell, several of them on beats. Selling a beat is the market saying expectations were already in the price, and LRCX pulled chip-equipment peers AMAT and UCTT down with it. In the regular session the biggest single-stock gains were speculative: ASST up 13.2%, SMCI up 9.2% on $2.9B, APLD up 9% and MSTR up 7.6% as bitcoin bounced. SPCX rose 7.6% on $34.5B, the most money of any stock.
MSTR and ROIV were the strongest names in play: MSTR rose 7.6% on $3.4B with bitcoin, and ROIV rose 5.4% on almost three times its usual volume after new drug data. Chip money ran through the 3x chip fund SOXL, up 5.7% on $7.6B, while PLTR added 4.9% on $4.2B and data center names APLD, IREN and WULF bounced hard from deeply oversold levels.
Since the 8:25 AM read: little has changed — SPY holds near 771 and small caps keep the lead, with IWM still up 2%.
A bond rally is the driver: TLT is up 1.1% after the 10-year closed Monday at 5.15%, and the stocks most hurt by high rates are leading. SPY is at 770.94, just above its 21-day average at 770 and a point and a half under yesterday's 772.29 high. QQQ is the laggard at 722, under every daily average with its 50-day at 727, while IWM is up 2% to 276.61.
Money is going two ways: into rate-sensitive groups and into AI hardware. Musk's comment that SpaceX is adding 200,000 chips a month has NVDA up 2% and SMCI up 12%, and SpaceX itself traded about $17.5B, the most on the board. Real Estate, Utilities and Financials lead the sectors, while Communication Services is the only red group as T and NFLX get sold after beating. In the last session large orders put about $260 million net into SPY and pulled about $640 million out of QQQ.
The bounce is broad — almost two stocks up for every one down and 269 up 4% or more against 90 down — but it starts from damage. Only 1 in 3 stocks is above its 40-day average and new lows still edge out new highs, 69 to 62. Gold and oil slipped while the VIX rose to 17.55, so traders are buying stocks but still paying for protection ahead of TSLA and META results. Washed-out readings like this usually bounce hard; the test is whether it lasts past today.
Since the 8:31 AM read: the bond rally faded, IWM's gain shrank from 2% to 0.4%, and SPY slipped back to 770 as TSLA and META took the lead.
The pre-market story was rate relief, and it did not survive the open: TLT's gain fell from 1.1% to 0.2% and the groups that needed it — small caps, Real Estate, Health Care — gave back. SPY is up 0.1% at 769.94, sitting exactly on its 21-day average at 769.91 and just under its 10-day at 770.09. QQQ is now the strongest index, up 0.7% to 722.59, but still under its 50-day at 726.95 and its 10-day at 728.04.
The money moved from rate-sensitive groups into big tech ahead of tonight's reports. TSLA is up 3.2% with $4.7B traded and META is up 2.1% on $2.3B, while NVDA (+1.5%, $3.8B) and AMD (+1.5%, $2.2B) keep the chip bid going. Health Care traded the most of any sector fund, about $580 million, on the way down, and large orders have pulled about $120 million out of QQQ even as it rises.
Breadth is still positive, with 5,551 stocks up against 3,386 down, but new lows have jumped from 69 to 131 since 8:30 while new highs only went from 62 to 78. Only 1 in 3 stocks is above its 40-day average, and the money-flow gauge for the big index funds is falling. The VIX eased to 17.15 and gold is up 0.3%, so nobody is panicking — but an index held up by a few names while new lows grow usually fades unless the leaders deliver.
Since the 10:35 AM read: SPY broke above yesterday's 772.29 high as chips and TSLA drew more money, while SPCX cooled from 12% to 10.5%.
Big tech and chips drove the late morning, not rates — TLT is barely up and IWM has stalled at +0.3%. SPY is up 0.5% at 772.5, above yesterday's 772.29 high and above its 10-day (770.7), 21-day (770.2) and 50-day (766.1) averages. QQQ is the strongest index, up 1% to 725.8, but still under its 50-day at 727.1, its 10-day at 728.9 and its 21-day at 732.2 — a bounce inside a downtrend.
The money is concentrated in a handful of names: SPCX has traded $20.3B, TSLA $8.7B (+3.5%), NVDA $8.6B (+1.8%) and META $5.1B (+2.4%). Health Care is losing the most money of any sector, about $935 million. Large orders have pulled nearly $1B out of QQQ today while putting about $150 million into SPY, so the tech gain is being bought by smaller orders.
The rise is broad by count — 6,390 stocks up against 3,578 down — but new lows climbed to 159 from 131 at 10:30, still ahead of 113 new highs, and only 1 in 3 stocks is above its 40-day average. An index pushing to a two-day high while new lows grow usually stalls unless the leaders deliver, which puts tonight's TSLA and META reports at the center.
Since the 12:31 PM read: QQQ rose to its 50-day average at 727 while large orders doubled their selling to $1.6B, and SPCX cooled from 10.5% to 6.7%.
Big tech and chips drove the afternoon, and the 1:00 PM 20-year auction at 5.46% did not stop them — TLT is still up 0.16%. SPY is up 0.7% at 774.28, above yesterday's 772.29 high and above its 10-, 21- and 50-day averages (770.9, 770.3, 766.2). QQQ is the strongest index, up 1.3% to 727.25 and level with its 50-day at 727.15, but still under its 10-day (728.95) and 21-day (732.25). IWM has made only 0.5%, so small caps are following, not leading.
The money is still concentrated: SPCX has traded $26.5B, then NVDA $11.4B (+2.3%), TSLA $11.2B (+3.5%), META $7.6B and AMD $6.1B, plus $5.8B through the 3x chip fund SOXL. Health Care is losing the most of any sector, about $1.2B. Large orders have pulled $1.6B out of QQQ and turned to about $150M out of SPY, so the afternoon push is smaller orders buying what the biggest players sell.
The breadth is real by count — 6,872 up against 3,454 down — and new highs rose to 137 from 113 at midday. But 169 stocks are still at new lows and only 1 in 3 is above its 40-day average, so this is a bounce from washed-out levels, not a new uptrend. The VIX is down 3.6% to 16.68 and gold is up only 0.5%: no one is hedging into tonight's reports, which leaves Thursday riding on the reports themselves.
Since the 2:31 PM read: QQQ slipped back under its 50-day average at 727, large orders lifted their QQQ selling to $2.1B, and new lows grew to 220.
Big tech and chips drove the whole session into tonight's reports, and rates never got in the way — the 20-year auction cleared at 5.46% and TLT still closed up. SPY finished up 0.55% near 773.3, above yesterday's 772.29 high and above its 21-day (770.28) and 50-day (766.16) averages. QQQ was the strongest index, up 1% to about 725, but it gave up the 50-day at 727.10 it touched at 2:30 PM and stays under its 21-day at 732.14. IWM made only 0.2%, so small caps sat the rally out.
The money stayed concentrated in a handful of names: SPCX traded $34.5B, NVDA $18.9B, TSLA and META about $16B each and AAPL $12B, plus $7.6B through the 3x chip fund SOXL. Health Care lost the most of any sector, about $1.5B, with Consumer Staples and Communication Services next. Large orders pulled $2.1B out of QQQ, up from $1.6B at 2:30 PM and the heaviest selling of the past five sessions, while smaller orders bought it — the reverse of last Friday, when large orders put $7.7B in.
By count the day was broad, with about five stocks up for every three down and 720 up 4% or more against 367 down. But new lows outnumbered new highs 220 to 147, the money-flow gauge for the big index funds is still falling, and only 1 in 3 stocks is above its 40-day average. The VIX fell to 16.69 and gold barely moved, so nobody is hedging; a washed-out market with sellers using strength usually needs a catalyst to keep going, and tonight's TSLA and META numbers are that test.
LRCX (Lam Research) — in-line quarter, sold 6.3% after hours.
HXL (Hexcel) — down 8.2% after its report.
MEDP (Medpace) — down 6.1% on three times usual volume.
URI (United Rentals) — beat by 11%, still sold 4.4%.
Thu open — TSLA and META reactions — both carried today's Nasdaq gain.
Thu 8:30 AM — jobless claims, 200K expected — next read for rates.
Thu before open — PG, UNP, LMT, NEM report — tests defensive and industrial demand.
Thu — WDC, BE and SPOT report — all ran hard into the numbers.
Fri 9:45 AM — S&P factory and services surveys — first October growth read.
This brief is 24 hours old
Today's setups and tape reading are live now for subscribers.
Get today's brief