Megacap rally, broad selling. AMZN, TSLA and chips lifted QQQ 1.2%, but new lows hit 384 against 76 highs and large orders sold a net $1.8 billion of SPY, reversing Friday's $7.5 billion of buying.
The bounce rests on a handful of giants while utilities, real estate and banks fell and bonds sold off. A SPY close under 765.74, its 50-day average, would confirm the big buyers have stepped back.
SPY closed at 766.96, wedged between its 50-day average at 765.74 and its 21-day at 770.09: a close above 770.09 opens Friday's 773.25 high, while a close under 765.74 points back to Friday's 760.64 low. QQQ at 718.53 has to retake Friday's 725.96 high and its 50-day at 727.57 before the chip rebound counts as more than a bounce. With only 1 in 4 stocks above its 40-day average, the market is oversold enough to bounce, but only if Tuesday's 8:30 AM housing starts (1.31M expected) and NFLX results don't add to the pressure; TSLA, META, LRCX and TXN report Wednesday.
The macro push today came from bonds, not stocks: TLT fell 0.69% as yields rose, and the money left the rate-sensitive corners, with utilities down 1.90% and real estate down 1.32% as the two worst sectors. Housing added to it at 10 AM, when the builders' sentiment index printed 29 against 32 expected, a three-point drop from last month, and the 3x homebuilder fund NAIL fell 4.3%. Volatility went the other way, with VIX down 7.5% to 18.5, so stock buyers were not hedging even as bonds sold. Gold slipped 0.70% and oil 0.49%, which says this was not a flight to safety or an energy shock, just higher rates squeezing the slow-growth groups while tech was bought.
• SLN — Silence Therapeutics more than doubled, up 125.6% on a deal-related catalyst — about 66 times its usual volume and $1.4 billion traded, the largest single-stock move of the day.
• IRON — Disc Medicine's pivotal study in sunlight-sensitivity patients succeeded — the stock jumped 37.2% on roughly eight times normal volume.
• CLF — Cleveland-Cliffs posted its strongest quarter in three years, earning 28 cents a share against 21 cents expected — up 16.7% on four times usual volume with $1.2 billion traded.
• AMZN — Reports that Amazon's Trainium chips offer a way around Nvidia's software lock-in — the stock rose 5.0% on $14.2 billion traded, the day's biggest megacap gain.
• DXC — DXC Technology is in advanced talks to sell its insurance software unit to Eldridge for $2.4 billion — shares rose 4.7% on four times usual volume.
• CCK — Crown Holdings beat estimates at $2.39 a share and tightened its full-year range to $8.35-$8.45 — the stock still fell 5.6%, because the midpoint barely clears the $8.41 estimate.
• STLD — Steel Dynamics reported after the close: $5.29 a share missed the $5.48 estimate while sales of $6.51 billion beat — a test of whether the steel rally that lifted CLF holds.
• NFLX — Netflix slid ahead of its results this week — options price one of the quarter's largest earnings moves for it, alongside UAL, ISRG and SpaceX.
| Ticker | Price | Trigger | Target | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $SLN | 19.58 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $IRON | 78.48 | — | — | Stage 1B |
| $TCRT | 3.15 | — | — | Stage 1B |
| $CLF | 14.10 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $UAMY | 3.16 | — | — | Stage 4B |
| $ARQT | 31.91 | — | — | Stage 1B |
| $KOPN | 3.56 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $WRBY | 24.99 | — | — | Stage 1A |
| $ASST | 25.63 | — | — | Stage 2B |
| $WDC | 351.50 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $CCK | 108.50 | — | — | Stage 3A |
| $TRI | 103.39 | — | — | Stage 1B |
| $INTR | 6.69 | — | — | Stage 1B |
| $WRB | 71.80 | — | — | Stage 3A |
| $ASAN | 9.90 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $EXPD | 192.85 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $RNG | 77.61 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $BSY | 36.01 | — | — | Stage 1B |
| $ELV | 421.85 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $SLGN | 39.28 | — | — | Stage 4C |
Leading: Consumer Discretionary +1.78%, Technology +1.33%, Materials +0.06%
Lagging: Communication Services -0.03%, Consumer Staples -0.18%, Energy -0.35%, Industrials -0.58%, Health Care -0.62%, Financials -0.81%, Real Estate -1.32%, Utilities -1.90%
Only three sectors rose, and they drew about $2.9 billion through their sector funds against about $8.6 billion in the eight that fell. The most money traded in energy, about $1.9 billion, even though it fell 0.35%, followed by technology at $1.7 billion and financials at $1.6 billion on a 0.81% drop. Consumer discretionary led on percentage but drew only $725 million, because its gain is mostly one stock, AMZN. The biggest stock by money traded was NVDA at $20.9 billion for a 1.4% gain, ahead of AMZN at $14.2 billion and TSLA at $14.0 billion. Large orders sold $3.4 billion of SPY and bought only $1.6 billion, a net $1.8 billion outflow on an up day, and were roughly even in QQQ, so the big money stopped chasing the bounce it funded on Friday.
The regular session's biggest winners all moved on their own news: SLN more than doubled on a deal catalyst, IRON rose 37.2% on a successful pivotal trial and CLF gained 16.7% on its best quarter in three years. Biotech supplied four of the ten largest gains, with TCRT up 20.9% and ARQT up 10.7% on more than twice normal volume. On the downside the pattern was earnings beats that sold off, led by CCK down 5.6%, TRI down 4.5% and WRB down 3.1%. After the bell the only notable report in the data is STLD, with a profit miss and a sales beat; no after-hours moves were in the snapshot.
MRNA rose 4.0% and PLTR 4.4%, each on more than $4.2 billion traded, the most money in the active list. ARQT carried the heaviest volume of the active list at more than twice normal on a 10.7% gain,, and TTMI rose 5.2% at about one and a half times usual volume as the chip-supplier rebound spread. WRBY gained 7.1% and AAOX, the leveraged fund on AAOI, rose 7.5% even though it is still far below its highs.
Since 8:25 AM: little has changed — SPY holds 767 and the chip bounce led by NBIS, CRWV and INTC is still intact.
The driver is a bounce in the group that broke the market last week: chips fell eight sessions straight for the first time since 2008, and this morning upgrades on INTC, NBIS and CRWV have buyers stepping in. SPY is at 767.30, inside Friday's wide 760.64–773.25 range and just above its 50-day average at 765.71, but still under its 10- and 21-day averages at 771.51 and 770.45. QQQ is the weak index at about 719, below every one of its daily averages and roughly $17 under its 50-day at 727.94, so the Nasdaq has the most ground to make up. Small caps (IWM 271.74) have no catalyst of their own and are following the large-cap tape.
The money is going straight back into last week's losers: NVDA leads the board at $26 billion traded, with SNDK, SOXL and INTC each above $11 billion and CRWV near $6 billion on 2.4 times its usual volume. The inverse funds are being sold — SOXS is down 10.4% and SQQQ 3.7% — which is short sellers covering, not just new buying. Large orders set this up on Friday, putting $10.3 billion into SPY against $2.8 billion sold and $9.9 billion into QQQ against $2.3 billion, the heaviest one-sided buying of the week. The sector funds have traded only a few million dollars, with energy (+1.41%) on top as oil rises 1.6%.
The bounce is broad — 367 stocks up 4% or more against 77 down — but it is coming off a deeply damaged base, with only 1 in 4 stocks above its 40-day average and 164 new lows against 46 new highs. Volatility is not adding fuel: the VIX is flat near 20 and the leveraged VIX fund UVXY is down 3.7% on almost five times its usual volume, so hedges are being taken off. Bonds are flat (TLT 80.02) and gold is slightly lower (GLD -0.3%), so there is no rate or fear shock to fight. Readings this oversold usually bounce for several days; whether it becomes more depends on new lows shrinking and QQQ getting back toward its 50-day average.
Since 8:38 AM: the bounce narrowed to tech — QQQ is up 1.4%, but stocks down 4%+ jumped from 77 to 201 and new lows rose to 289.
Last week's chip losers are still being bought back, now joined by megacaps: AMZN +2.8%, AMD +2.4%, TSLA +1.8%. SPY is at 767.72, above its 50-day average at 765.75 but under its 21-day at 770.10. QQQ is the strong index at 720.02 but remains under Friday's 725.96 high and its 50-day average at 727.54. The Dow is flat and IWM is up just 0.3%, so a handful of large names carry the index.
The money is in a few megacaps — NVDA $3.7 billion, TSLA $3.0 billion, AMD $2.6 billion — plus $1.2 billion of selling in the inverse chip fund SOXS as shorts cover. Sector funds show the other side — $2.4 billion traded in the nine falling sectors against $0.6 billion in tech and consumer discretionary. Large orders that put a net $7.5 billion into SPY on Friday are now flat.
Underneath, the market is split: advancers and decliners are even, and new lows outnumber highs 289 to 80, a wider gap than before the open. The VIX is down 11% to 17.79 as hedges come off, while utilities and real estate are sold on rising rates. With 1 in 4 stocks above its 40-day average the market is oversold enough to bounce, but one this narrow usually stalls unless new lows shrink.
Since 10:35 AM: the bounce widened — rising stocks took the lead and AMZN nearly doubled its gain to 5% — but large orders flipped to selling SPY.
Chips are still the driver, with the memory group leading: MU +4.8%, SNDK +7.3% and MRVL +7.5% as last week's eight-day slide reverses. SPY is at 768.50, above its 50-day average at 765.81 but still under its 21-day at 770.25 and Friday's 773.25 high. QQQ is up 1.6% at 722.38, still below Friday's 725.96 high and its 50-day at 727.71, while the Dow is flat and IWM is up 0.4%.
The money is concentrated: MU $11.3 billion, NVDA $10.2 billion, TSLA $7.4 billion and AMZN $6.7 billion lead, and the inverse chip fund SOXS is down 10.2% on $2.2 billion as shorts cover. Sector funds tell the other side, $4.5 billion traded in the nine falling sectors against $1.2 billion in tech and consumer discretionary. Large orders sold a net $620 million of SPY and $250 million of QQQ, after a net $7.5 billion of SPY buying on Friday.
Breadth is better than this morning but not healthy: 583 stocks up 4%+ against 313 down, yet new lows grew to 303 against 66 highs. The VIX is down 9.6% to 18.08, so hedges are coming off. With only 1 in 4 stocks above its 40-day average the market is oversold enough to keep bouncing, but a rally that is sold by large orders and adds new lows usually stalls near the first overhead average, here 770.25 on SPY.
Since 12:31 PM: SPY slipped to 767.18 and QQQ gave back a third of its gain, while new lows jumped to 370 and falling stocks retook the lead.
The chip-and-megacap rebound is cooling: tech's gain shrank from 1.86% to 1.36% and AMD halved its gain to 2.0%, while AMZN and TSLA hold. SPY at 767.18 sits above its 50-day average at 765.78 but below its 21-day at 770.17, short of Friday's 773.25 high. QQQ is up 1.2% at 718.50, back under Friday's 725.96 high and far from its 50-day at 727.59, and IWM is up only 0.2%.
The money is in five megacaps: NVDA $13.5 billion, TSLA $9.8 billion, AMZN $8.8 billion, AMD $7.5 billion and MSFT $5.2 billion. Sector funds show the other side, about $6 billion traded in the eight falling sectors against $1.9 billion in the three rising ones, with energy the busiest at $1.4 billion while down 0.66%. Large orders are selling harder than at midday, a net $780 million of SPY and $660 million of QQQ.
The move under the index is shrinking: stocks up 4%+ lead those down 4%+ only 473 to 440, from 583 to 313 at midday, and new lows outnumber highs 370 to 79. The VIX is down 8% to 18.40, but up from 18.08 at midday, while TLT -0.64% keeps utilities (-1.86%) and real estate (-1.15%) at the bottom. With 1 in 4 stocks above its 40-day average the market is oversold enough to bounce, but a rally that loses breadth into the afternoon usually closes near its lows and retests the 50-day average.
Since 2:31 PM: SPY held 766.96 into the close, but new lows rose from 370 to 384 and large-order selling of SPY more than doubled to $1.8 billion.
The chip-and-megacap rebound from last week's eight-day chip slide held up into the bell: QQQ closed up 1.2% at 718.53 and SPY up 0.5% at 766.96, while the Dow finished flat. SPY stayed above its 50-day average at 765.74 all session but never reclaimed its 21-day at 770.09 or Friday's 773.25 high. QQQ remains well under Friday's 725.96 high and its 50-day at 727.57, so the Nasdaq rebound still has not repaired last week's damage. IWM added only 0.3% to 271.33, confirming the gain came from the top of the market, not the broad middle.
The money went into a short list: NVDA traded $20.9 billion for a 1.4% gain, AMZN $14.2 billion for 5.0% and TSLA $14.0 billion for 3.7% ahead of Wednesday's report. Consumer discretionary and technology were the only real gainers, while $8.6 billion traded through the eight sector funds that fell, led by energy at $1.9 billion and financials at $1.6 billion. Large orders sold a net $1.8 billion of SPY, the reverse of Friday's $7.5 billion of buying, and were flat in QQQ. Outside the giants, the strongest stocks moved on their own news, like SLN on a deal catalyst and CLF on earnings, not on a market-wide bid.
Under the index the market was weak: 5,622 stocks fell against 5,013 that rose and new lows outnumbered highs five to one at 384 against 76. Only 1 in 4 stocks is above its 40-day average, oversold territory that has usually come near short-term lows. The cross-asset picture points to rates rather than fear, with VIX down 7.5% to 18.5 while bonds, gold and oil all fell. That combination usually means the index can drift higher on a few leaders while most stocks keep leaking, until breadth turns or the leaders crack on earnings.
CCK (Crown Holdings) — beat, tightened guidance, sold 5.6% anyway.
WRB (W.R. Berkley) — revenue missed by $85 million; buyers left on the beat.
TRI (Thomson Reuters) — fell 4.5% on results with no relief bid.
ELV (Elevance Health) — sliding into earnings on premium pressure.
Tue 8:30 AM — Housing starts, 1.31M expected — builders' sentiment already missed badly today.
Tue — STLD reaction — tests whether CLF's steel rally spreads.
Tue — NFLX results — one of the quarter's largest expected earnings moves.
Tue — GE, RTX, ISRG, COF report — industrials and banks lagged today.
Wed — TSLA, META, LRCX, TXN — the real test of the megacap rally.
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