Broad selling. Hot wholesale and import prices kept rate fears alive, SPY closed near 763 under Thursday's 764.43 low, and 1,601 stocks fell 4% or more against 217 up, while only Energy, Staples and Utilities drew money.
Large orders bought about $7.5 billion more SPY and $7.7 billion more QQQ than they sold, the biggest net buying of the week, on a day prices fell. If SPY cannot get back over 764.43 on Monday, that buying has been overrun and the selling likely carries into the week.
SPY 764.43, Thursday's low, decides Monday: back above it and through its 50-day average at 765.71 usually turns a market this oversold into a bounce, while staying under it leaves the 30-week average near 741 as the next real floor. QQQ closed near 710, under Thursday's 715.44 low; reclaiming that stops the tech selling, while failing points to 699.84, its 30-week average. Tuesday's 8:30 AM housing starts (1.30 million expected) and Wednesday's 1:00 PM 20-year bond auction, last at 5.42%, are the next tests for rates.
Rates drove the day: Thursday's wholesale prices rose 1.3% in a month against 0.5% expected, with core prices up 5.0% on the year versus 4.4%, and Friday added import prices up 1.1% versus 0.8% and export prices up 2.2% versus 1.0%. With the 10-year Treasury at 5.19% and the Fed funds rate at 3.75%, that run of hot prints keeps another hike on the table, and the stocks that need cheap money paid for it, with QQQ down 2.4% to about 710.
The other markets confirmed it was rates, not a rush to safety: the VIX jumped 21% to 19.98, but long bonds (TLT) were flat and gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) slipped, so nobody bought the usual hiding places. Oil (USO) rose 2.9% after Thursday's 8.6 million barrel crude draw against a small build expected, which is why Energy was the one group that won. Bitcoin-linked stocks got hit hard, with two-times MSTR funds down about 19%.
• Inflation — wholesale, import and export prices all came in hotter than expected this week — that keeps an October hike alive and is why bonds gave stocks no cushion.
• Oil — a crude draw of 8.6 million barrels versus a small build expected — USO rose 2.9% and Energy led every sector.
• MRNA — Moderna fell 7.8% on $4.6 billion after adding more than $4 billion in market value in a week — the heaviest single-stock selling of the day.
• SMCI — Super Micro named former Western Digital executive Mark Long as CFO while it deals with accounting and export-control scrutiny — the stock fell 9.6%.
• PLTR — Palantir dropped more than 7% to $186.36 — AI software is falling with AI hardware.
• NBIS — Nebius kept sliding with AI cloud names — its two-times funds lost about 24%, while a two-times bet against CRWV gained 22%.
• VRNS — Varonis traded 23 times its usual volume, tagged as a deal, with a shareholder law firm already announcing an investigation — the stock rose 2.9% on $1.75 billion.
• MSFT — NiSource landed a major power deal with Microsoft — the stock still fell 2.0% on $12.9 billion, the second-most money of any stock.
| Ticker | Price | Trigger | Target | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $SITC | 3.43 | — | — | Stage 4C |
| $CRGY | 13.64 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $AR | 38.30 | — | — | Stage 3A |
| $HAWK | 13.09 | — | — | Stage 4B |
| $ENGS | 3.77 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $APA | 49.15 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $BTI | 60.00 | — | — | Stage 1B |
| $VRNS | 48.72 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $AA | 41.45 | — | — | Stage 4B |
| $XOM | 178.70 | — | — | Stage 3A |
| $GENI | 6.14 | — | — | Stage 1B |
| $MTB | 210.54 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $AEO | 17.59 | — | — | Stage 1B |
| $CHH | 106.24 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $CPAY | 392.04 | — | — | Stage 2C |
| $CSGP | 31.68 | — | — | Stage 4C |
| $TRGP | 289.15 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $WRB | 73.95 | — | — | Stage 3A |
| $RCUS | 21.69 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $MIAX | 30.35 | — | — | Stage 4B |
Leading: Energy +2.48%, Utilities +1.37%, Consumer Staples +0.96%, Materials +0.83%, Financials +0.46%, Real Estate +0.40%
Lagging: Industrials -0.05%, Health Care -0.40%, Consumer Discretionary -0.93%, Communication Services -1.89%, Technology -2.89%
Money ran from growth to defense: Energy took in about $2.5 billion and was both the best performer and the biggest winner in dollars, with Financials at about $2.4 billion and Staples about $2.0 billion behind it. Technology lost about $2.8 billion, the most of any group, with Discretionary down about $1.8 billion and Industrials and Health Care about $1.5 billion each. AAPL traded about $20 billion, by far the most of any stock, yet rose only 0.3%, so the biggest name held while the rest of tech was sold; XOM took $2.3 billion and rose 2.3%. Large orders bought about $7.5 billion more SPY and $7.7 billion more QQQ than they sold, the biggest net buying of the week, while bets against chips (SOXS, $3.5 billion) and the Nasdaq (SQQQ, $2.3 billion) drew heavy money too.
The day's gainers were almost all energy and defense: CRGY rose 9.2% on twice its usual volume, AR 6.1% and APA 4.1% with oil up, while BTI gained 3.5% and XOM 2.3% on $2.3 billion. SITC jumped 14% on more than six times its usual volume, the biggest stock gain of the day. The biggest losers were growth and AI names: MRNA fell 7.8% on $4.6 billion, NTSK 6.2% and RBRK 5.2%, and MTB slipped 2.2% despite beating. No company on today's earnings list reported after the bell; the one late item is NNOX, which guided quarterly sales to $4.3-4.4 million against $5.45 million expected.
The busiest names were bets against the market: the three-times bear chip fund SOXS rose 12.7% on $3.5 billion and SQQQ 7.8% on $2.3 billion, while UVIX gained 16.2% on three times its usual volume as volatility jumped. The only operating companies near the top were oil producers, APA up 4.1% and AR up 6.1%, riding the crude draw.
Since the 8:25 read: SPY holds 773 and IWM still leads by 1.5%; the only new input is hotter import prices, and bonds kept rallying through them.
Thursday's hot wholesale-price print was sold and then bought: SPY fell to 764.43 and closed at 769.60, and QQQ ran from 715.44 back to 728.95. Pre-market SPY trades 773.32, up 0.5%, right on its 10-day average of 773.35 and above its 21-day at 771.17. IWM is up 1.5% to 275.44 and DIA 1.1%, while QQQ at 727.53 sits below its 50-day average of 728.68, the only major index under every one of its daily averages. That is money rotating out of large tech into small caps and cyclicals, not a broad lift.
Large-order money was a net seller of SPY on Thursday by about $740 million after Wednesday's roughly $4 billion of net buying, while QQQ kept a small $310 million net inflow. Thursday's dollars concentrated in AAPL ($13.7 billion), META ($12.4 billion), TSLA ($9.6 billion) and CRWV (about $8.4 billion, down 5.1%), and the 3x inverse chip fund SOXS traded $5.1 billion as chips were sold. Pre-market, Consumer Discretionary leads at +2.43% behind TSLA and Health Care takes the most sector-fund dollars, while Energy loses $3.9 million even with oil up 1.9%.
Pre-market breadth leans positive, with 1,762 up against 1,202 down and 67 new highs against 47 new lows, but only 1 in 3 stocks is above its 40-day average after a week in which 2,020 stocks fell 4%+ and 1,189 rose that much. Cross-assets are unusual: long bonds up 1.3%, gold 1.8% and silver 4.0% while the VIX sits flat at 16.5, which reads as buying real assets and duration, not a scramble for protection. Oversold readings like this usually bounce for a few days, but a bounce led by small caps alone tends to fade unless QQQ reclaims 729.
Since the 8:37 read: QQQ slid from 727.53 to 721.59 as a Gartner warning hit AI cloud names, and SPY gave back 773 to sit on 771.
The driver is a Gartner warning on AI cloud demand, which knocked NBIS down 6.8% and CRWV 8.0% and pulled chips with them. QQQ at 721.59 is below all four daily averages, 728.39 to 737.29, with Thursday's 715.44 low the next floor. SPY at 771.51 is under its 10-day average of 772.99 but sitting on its 21-day at 771.19, held up by banks and staples, and IWM at 274.79 keeps most of its pre-market gain.
Money left tech for the rest of the market: Energy drew about $750 million and Financials $640 million while Technology lost $540 million. TSLA leads all stocks at $6.2B, up 1.5%, and JPM added 1.8% on $618M as regional banks beat. The heaviest losses are CRWV ($1.2B), MRNA ($1.0B) and NBIS ($1.0B), and large-order money bought a net $830 million of SPY but only $90 million of QQQ.
More stocks are up than down, but 426 are off 4% or more against 168 up that much, and highs and lows are tied at 92 and 91. Only 1 in 3 stocks is above its 40-day average while the VIX fell to 15.94: a washed-out market reshuffling, not a scared one, and that usually bounces within days. A bounce without the Nasdaq leaders tends to stall unless QQQ gets back over 728.
Since 10:33: SPY lost its 771 average for 767 after Fed Chair Warsh kept an October hike open, and stocks down 4% or more more than doubled to 966.
The AI selling became a rate scare when Warsh would not rule out an October hike. QQQ slid from 721.59 to 716.20, down 1.6% and less than a point above Thursday's 715.44 low, with every daily average from 728.19 to 736.54 now above it. SPY at 767 is under its 21-day average of 770.80 but still over its 50-day at 765.87, and IWM gave back its morning gain to fall 1.2% to 271.68.
Energy took about $1.4 billion and Financials $1.1 billion while Technology lost $1.0 billion. CRWV ($2.8B) and NBIS ($2.6B) are sold hardest, and the inverse chip fund SOXS pulled in $2.0B. Large orders bought about $4.2 billion more SPY than they sold and $3.7 billion more QQQ, so the biggest buyers are taking the drop.
Breadth flipped: 966 stocks are down 4% or more against 180 up, and new lows lead highs 212 to 98. The VIX rose 5.3% to 17.33 while gold and long bonds both fell, the mark of a rate scare rather than a flight to safety. With only 1 in 3 stocks above its 40-day average the market is oversold, and that usually bounces within days, but only once QQQ stops making new lows.
Since 12:33: SPY broke Thursday's 764.43 low to 762, and stocks down 4% or more jumped from 966 to 1,459 with the VIX at 20.94.
The rate scare from a week of hot CPI, PPI and import prices deepened into the afternoon. QQQ is down 2.4% at 710.68, nearly 5 points under Thursday's 715.44 low. SPY is down 1.2% at 762.42, beneath both Thursday's low and its 50-day average at 765.70, and IWM is down 1.7% at 270.45.
Energy took about $1.8 billion, Staples $1.5 billion and Utilities $840 million, while Financials lost $1.7 billion and Technology $1.6 billion. CRWV ($3.9B) and NBIS ($3.8B) remain the most heavily sold stocks, and the inverse chip fund SOXS pulled in $2.7B. Yet large orders bought about $6.3 billion more SPY than they sold and $5.6 billion more QQQ, more than at midday, so the biggest buyers are adding as prices fall.
Breadth got worse, not better: 7 in 10 stocks are down and new lows lead highs 335 to 101. The VIX is up 27% while gold and long bonds fell, so investors are raising cash, not hiding. With only 1 in 3 stocks above its 40-day average the market is deeply oversold,, which usually bounces within days, but a close below Thursday's low means it starts from a lower floor.
Since 2:33: SPY finished near 763, still under Thursday's 764.43 low, as stocks down 4% or more grew to 1,601 and new lows to 448.
A week of hot price data drove the selling, capped by Friday's import prices at +1.1% against +0.8% expected. SPY closed down about 1.1% near 763, under Thursday's 764.43 low and its 50-day average at 765.71, with volume about 40% above normal. QQQ lost 2.4% to about 710, nearly 5 points under Thursday's 715.44 low, and IWM fell 1.6% to 270.55. The index finished a little above its 2:30 PM level but never got back over the one that mattered.
Money left Technology (about $2.8 billion out) and Discretionary ($1.8 billion) for Energy ($2.5 billion in), Financials ($2.4 billion) and Staples ($2.0 billion). MRNA took the heaviest single-stock selling at $4.6 billion, MSFT fell 2.0% on $12.9 billion, and two-times NBIS funds lost 24%, while AAPL held up 0.3% on $20 billion. Large orders still bought about $7.5 billion more SPY and $7.7 billion more QQQ than they sold, up from $6.3 billion and $5.6 billion at 2:30 PM, so the biggest buyers kept adding all the way down.
Breadth closed at its worst: 7 in 10 stocks fell, 1,601 dropped 4% or more against 217 up, and new lows led highs 448 to 117. The VIX rose 21% to 19.98 while long bonds were flat and gold fell, so this was rate selling, not a flight to safety. With only 1 in 3 stocks above its 40-day average the market is deeply oversold, which usually bounces within days once the index stops making new lows.
MRNA (Moderna) — heaviest single-stock selling today after a week-long run.
NTSK (Netskope) — down 6% on triple volume as software sold off.
RBRK (Rubrik) — growth software repricing on higher rates.
NBIL (2X Nebius fund) — leverage on the weakest AI cloud name.
Mon 9:30 AM — SPY 764.43 — whether Thursday's broken low is reclaimed.
Mon 10:00 AM — Homebuilder confidence — 31 expected, first read on rates.
Tue 8:30 AM — Housing starts and permits — 1.30 million starts expected.
Wed 1:00 PM — 20-year bond auction — last sold at 5.42%.
Fri 10:00 AM — Michigan sentiment — 46.3 expected, plus inflation expectations.
This brief is 24 hours old
Today's setups and tape reading are live now for subscribers.
Get today's brief