Broad rally without tech. Weak core retail spending pulled yields down and TLT up 1.5%, seven in ten stocks rose and IWM gained 1.4%, while chips held QQQ down 0.2%. SPY closed at 771.56, back above its 21-day average.
New lows still beat new highs 289 to 143, so a large slice of the market is still breaking down underneath the rally. A SPY close back under 769.59, its 30-day average, would say today's buying was only money moving out of tech, not new money coming in.
SPY 773.35, its 10-day average, is the next test: a close above it, with only 1 in 4 stocks over its 40-day average, usually carries a bounce toward yesterday's 776.35 high, while a slip under 771.17 puts the index back in its range. QQQ at 727.56 has to hold yesterday's 726.39 low and retake its 50-day at 728.68 to show the chip selling is done; a close back under 726.39 reopens the downside. Friday's 8:30 AM import prices, expected up 0.8%, decide whether bonds can extend a rally built on soft spending data.
The day turned on a split 8:30 AM: producer prices rose 1.3% against 0.5% expected, but core retail sales rose only 0.1% after 1.2% and the Philly Fed factory gauge fell to 20.9 from 37.8, so traders read weak demand over hot costs.
Bonds rallied on that read, with TLT up 1.5% to 80.08, and lower yields flowed straight into small caps (IWM +1.4%), banks and home builders.
Oil added 2.3% through USO after an 8.6-million-barrel crude draw against 0.3 million expected, yet energy stocks finished as the worst sector at -1.51%.
Gold rose 1.7%, silver 3.2% and VIX slipped 2.4% to 16.47: bonds, metals, oil and most stocks all rose together, which is money pricing lower rates, not money hiding.
• TSM — beat with $4.60 a share against $4.45 expected — chips were sold anyway, leaving technology the only big losing sector and QQQ down 0.2%.
• CRWV — snapped back after Nvidia's CEO signaled support — rose 6.2% on $8.3 billion traded, 3.4 times its usual volume, after opening 6.6% lower.
• NOW — rose as investors shifted to older software names — up 5.7% on $2.6 billion, with INTU +6.3%, ADBE +4.4% and CRM gaining on a major UK deal.
• LLY — obesity-drug field keeps widening, with 200+ companies in trials — LLY still rose 3.6% on $4.7 billion, leading health care's $2.0 billion day.
• RKLB — another Neutron launch setback — fell 6.1% on about twice its usual volume and $2.5 billion traded.
• NFLX — to cut about 1,000 jobs, its biggest layoffs since 2022, ahead of earnings — stock rose 2.8%.
• GOOGL — priced Gemini 4 Argon below some AI rivals as it reaches enterprises — up 0.4% on $7.2 billion.
• HAIN — Bloomberg reports Hain Celestial is weighing a potential bankruptcy — the report landed after the close.
| Ticker | Price | Trigger | Target | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $VSTM | 9.39 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $PMI | 11.91 | — | — | Stage 4C |
| $ERIC | 10.66 | — | — | Stage 4C |
| $Z | 31.45 | — | — | Stage 4B |
| $IONQ | 34.58 | — | — | Stage 1A |
| $WULF | 12.65 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $CRCL | 86.92 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $INOD | 53.14 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $USAR | 11.14 | — | — | Stage 4B |
| $RGTI | 12.62 | — | — | Stage 1A |
| $KNX | 61.55 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $RYN | 18.40 | — | — | Stage 4B |
| $JBHT | 229.00 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $FBIN | 39.00 | — | — | Stage 4B |
| $OMC | 79.00 | — | — | Stage 3A |
| $UTHR | 530.00 | — | — | Stage 3B |
| $RVTY | 151.60 | — | — | Stage 2A |
| $AVY | 172.36 | — | — | Stage 1B |
| $SBAC | 180.05 | — | — | Stage 4C |
| $VRDN | 19.17 | — | — | Stage 4A |
Leading: Materials +2.03%, Health Care +1.98%, Consumer Discretionary +1.70%, Communication Services +1.46%, Financials +1.40%, Real Estate +1.21%, Consumer Staples +0.72%, Industrials +0.64%
Lagging: Utilities -0.12%, Technology -0.86%, Energy -1.51%
Financials took the most money, about $2.5 billion through XLF, backed by earnings beats at PNC, SCHW, BNY and USB, with staples ($2.1 billion) and health care ($2.0 billion) the other big destinations.
Materials led on price at +2.03% but drew only about $750 million, so the percentage leader was not where the money went.
Technology lost about $2.6 billion and energy $2.1 billion; those two paid for the rotation, and energy was sold even as crude rose.
MSFT was the single biggest stock by money traded at $12.1 billion, up 1%, ahead of NBIS at $8.9 billion and AMZN at $8.5 billion.
Large orders pulled a net $736 million out of SPY and added only $311 million to QQQ, a fraction of yesterday's $3.8 billion tech bet.
No after-hours price moves are in the data yet; after the bell CNS and SFNC reported penny misses and beats, and FBIN flagged up to $205 million in more charges on its $160 million decking sale.
In the regular session the top gainers had real news: VSTM jumped 21.8% on 6.5 times its usual volume after encouraging cancer-drug responses, and ERIC rose 11.3% after beating estimates, $0.18 a share against $0.14. Behind them came beaten-down speculative tech climbing off lower opens: quantum names IONQ (+10.1%), RGTI (+7.9%) and QBTS (+6.7%), and bitcoin-mining and AI-hosting names WULF (+9.6%), CORZ (+6.5%) and CRWV (+6.2%).
CRCL rose 9.3% with crypto stocks, while the losers were milder and led by freight, with KNX down 5.7% and JBHT 2.7% after JB Hunt's profit miss.
CRWV was the heaviest mover, $8.3 billion traded at 3.4 times its usual volume as it climbed 6.2% from a 6.6% lower open on Nvidia's support.
IONQ, WULF and CORZ turned early losses into 6-10% gains, and MSTR and BMNR rose about 5% with bitcoin-linked stocks.
NKE gained 5.3% on $1.7 billion as consumer discretionary rose 1.7%.
First read of the session.
Chips are the driver: TSM beat estimates overnight and the group is being sold anyway, with NVDA down 4.5% and memory funds down 10-13%. QQQ trades at 720.77, down 3.1% and already below yesterday's low of 726.39 and its 50-day average at 728.71. SPY is down 1.3% at 767.70, just above yesterday's low of 766.71 and its 50-day at 765.57, while IWM is down 1.8% at 271.65. The 8:30 AM producer price report came in far hotter than expected, but it is not what drove the selling: bonds rallied 2.2% regardless.
The money is moving from hardware to shelter. Staples rose 3.9% and health care 3.8% while technology fell 4.5%, and energy's sector fund took the most pre-market money at about $9 million. The busiest trade on the board is SOXS, the 3x bet against chip stocks, with $3.8 billion traded, and bets against CRWV, SNDK and LITE all rose 8-11%. Big buyers put a net $4.0 billion into SPY and $3.8 billion into QQQ yesterday, so the open starts with fresh money underwater.
Underneath, the selling is broad: 432 stocks are down 4% or more against 121 up that much, and new lows lead new highs 392 to 71. Only 1 in 4 stocks is above its 40-day average, the kind of washed-out reading that usually sets up a bounce within days. Bonds up 2.2% while silver falls 4.5% and VIX sits at 16.82 says this is cash-raising, not panic. If the open finds buyers for the defensive groups and chips stabilize above QQQ 720, the flush can end quickly; if not, SPY 765.57 is the next level to give way.
Since pre-market: QQQ cut its loss from 3.1% to 1.2%, SPY climbed back above 765.63, and IWM flipped from down 1.8% to up 0.6%.
The driver changed at 8:30: a weak core retail sales number and a Philly factory miss turned the hot inflation print into a growth story, and bonds rallied 1.9%. SPY trades at 767.78, down 0.2%, back above its 50-day average at 765.63 and yesterday's low of 766.71, but still under its 21-day at 770.75. QQQ at 719.95 is down 1.2% and remains below yesterday's low of 726.39 and every daily average. IWM is up 0.6% at 273.09 and DIA up 0.7%, so everything outside big tech is green.
The money left chips and energy and went to health care, staples, software and housing. XLK lost about $1.2 billion and XLE about $816 million, while XLV took about $719 million and XLP $647 million. Software is being bought hard inside a falling tech sector, with INTU up 6.4%, ADBE up 5.2% and WDAY up 5.6%, while NBIS and IREN lost more than 10%. Big buyers added a net $641 million to QQQ this morning, buying the dip rather than running from it.
The surface is better than the inside: advancers lead 5,147 to 4,130, but new lows climbed from 392 pre-market to 561 against 117 highs. Only 1 in 4 stocks is above its 40-day average, and gold, silver and bonds are all rising together with VIX up to 17.42, which reads as money buying safety, not chasing risk. Washed-out readings like this usually bounce within days, but not while new lows are still expanding.
Since the morning read: new lows fell from 561 to 409, QQQ cut its loss to 0.8%, and an 8.6-million-barrel crude draw pushed USO up 2.9%.
The noon oil report and a steady bid for anything outside chips moved the tape since 10:30. SPY trades at 769.40, flat on the day, sitting right on its 30-day average at 769.48 and still under its 21-day at 771.02. QQQ improved to 722.91 from 719.95 but remains below yesterday's low of 726.39 and its 50-day at 728.54. IWM is up 0.6% and DIA 0.9%, so the index is flat only because big tech is red.
Health care took the most new money, about $1.15 billion, led by LLY up 5.1% on $2.1 billion and UNH up 4.2% on $2.0 billion. Technology's sector fund lost about $1.7 billion and energy's about $1.2 billion, while SOXS, the bet against chips, drew $3.6 billion. MSFT, up 0.9% on $5.0 billion, shows buyers sorting inside tech rather than leaving it. Large orders put a net $790 million into QQQ, up from $641 million.
Breadth is the strongest it has been all day, with 6,635 stocks up against 3,568 down and new lows shrinking by 150 in two hours. Bonds, gold and silver still rise while VIX eased to 16.88: protection and risk are being bought together. With only 1 in 4 stocks above its 40-day average, a session where new lows shrink like this is usually the first day of a bounce, provided chips stop leaking.
Since midday: advancers grew to 7,047, new lows fell from 409 to 369, and QQQ climbed to 724.01 while SPY stayed pinned near 770.
Lower yields carried the afternoon, with TLT up 1.6%. SPY trades at 769.87, flat, sitting between its 30-day average at 769.49 and its 21-day at 771.04. QQQ improved from 722.91 to 724.01 but is still below yesterday's low of 726.39 and its 50-day at 728.55. IWM is up 0.8% at 273.56 and DIA 1.0%, so the flat index hides a green market.
Money keeps leaving chips and energy for staples, health care and financials: technology's fund lost about $2.0 billion and energy's $1.5 billion, while staples took $1.45 billion and health care $1.4 billion. MRNA ($3.0 billion), LLY ($2.9 billion) and UNH ($2.5 billion) lead the buying, while chip suppliers SMTC, VICR and MTSI fell 9-15%. Large orders put a net $806 million into QQQ today while taking $351 million out of SPY — big buyers lean into the tech dip.
This is the broadest the day has been, with 885 stocks up 4% or more against 550 down. Bonds, gold and oil rising with VIX at 16.81 means money is pricing lower rates, not hiding. With only 1 in 4 stocks above its 40-day average, a two-to-one up day like this usually starts a bounce, provided chips stop leaking into the close.
Since power hour: SPY climbed from 769.87 to 771.56 and reclaimed its 21-day average, QQQ got back above 726.39, and new lows shrank from 369 to 289.
Falling yields carried the last two hours, with TLT finishing up 1.5% after core retail spending rose just 0.1% this morning. SPY closed at 771.56, up 0.25%, above its 21-day (771.17), 30-day (769.59) and 50-day (765.81) averages but still under its 10-day at 773.35. QQQ ended at 727.56, down 0.2%, back above yesterday's 726.39 low but just under its 50-day at 728.68 and every shorter average. IWM gained 1.4% to 275.13 and DIA 1.1%, so everything but big tech closed green.
Financials took the most money, about $2.5 billion through XLF, with staples and health care near $2.0 billion each, while technology's fund lost about $2.6 billion and energy's $2.1 billion. MSFT was the busiest stock at $12.1 billion and rose 1%, while CRWV traded $8.3 billion on 3.4 times its usual volume and rallied 6.2% off a lower open. Large orders added a net $311 million to QQQ, down from $806 million at 2:30 PM, and pulled $736 million from SPY, so big buyers trimmed their tech-dip buying into the bell.
The rally was broad by count: 7,653 stocks rose against 3,080 and 1,135 jumped 4% or more against 405 that fell that hard. New lows still doubled new highs, 289 to 143, and only 1 in 4 stocks sits above its 40-day average, so the damage underneath is being repaired, not erased. Bonds, gold, silver and oil all rose while VIX fell to 16.47, the pattern of money pricing lower rates rather than hiding. From readings this washed-out, a two-to-one up day usually gets follow-through within days if chips stop leaking.
RKLB (Rocket Lab) — another Neutron launch setback sent it down 6.1%.
KNX (Knight-Swift) — sold 5.7% alongside JB Hunt's profit miss.
FBIN (Fortune Brands) — up to $205M more charges on decking sale.
HAIN (Hain Celestial) — Bloomberg reports it is weighing a potential bankruptcy.
Fri 8:30 AM — Import prices — expected +0.8%; tests the bond rally.
Fri 9:15 AM — Capacity utilization — expected 76.5%, a read on factory demand.
Fri — TRV, TFC, MTB, CFG, RF earnings — show whether bank buying continues.
Fri — SPY 773.35 — its 10-day average; above it extends the bounce.
Fri — QQQ 728.68 — its 50-day; reclaiming it ends the chip selling.
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