Narrow risk-on. Chip and power money lifted SPY 0.6% to 779.48, above Monday's 776.61 high, on Marvell's revenue target and Google's nuclear deals, while IWM fell 0.74% after the 3-year auction cleared 4.93%. Large orders sold $1.3B of SPY.
Big orders have now sold SPY three days running, about $5 billion in all, and more stocks fell 4% or more today (514) than rose that much (458). A SPY close back under 776.61 would confirm the rally is being sold into.
SPY 776.61, Monday's high, decides it: holding above it keeps the breakout alive, and a close below opens 769.79, its 10-day average. IWM back over 283.38 would say small caps have absorbed the jump in rates. Wednesday's 1:00 PM 10-year auction (last 4.83%) and 2:00 PM Fed minutes are the next rate tests; another weak auction usually hits small caps first.
Rates were the macro story, and they hit small caps instead of the index. The 3-year note auction cleared at 4.93%, against 4.47% last time, and the 10-year was already at 5.28% on Friday. IWM lost 0.74% while SPY gained 0.60% and QQQ 0.49%. The other markets were calm: VIX fell 3.0% to 15.06, TLT edged up 0.22%, gold (GLD +0.56%) and silver rose, and oil (USO +0.74%) firmed into Wednesday's inventory report. The trade deficit widened to $105.6B against $102.0B expected, but stocks ignored it.
• CEG — Google's nuclear agreements with Constellation and Vistra cover upgrades, added capacity and funding for existing plants — CEG rose 12.1% and VST 10.6%, and utilities led every sector.
• MRVL — Marvell set a $20B revenue target for fiscal 2028 and up to $90B by 2031 on AI chip demand — up 5.9% on $14.7B traded, the second-busiest stock in the market.
• PENG — after the bell, Penguin guided fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS to $3.75-$5.15 against $3.25 expected — it was up 5.5% late.
• NEOG — Neogen raised its fiscal 2027 sales guidance — up 8.8% late, the biggest gainer after the close.
• WDC — memory and storage names fell on reports Seagate is bidding against Toshiba for TDK's hard-drive heads business — a hit to a group that has led chips.
• STZ — Constellation Brands bought SpikedAde for $75M — the stock slipped 2.8%.
• ZIM — raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $2.7B-$3B — up 4.7%.
• BKNG — Booking has fallen eight weeks in a row, tying its longest losing run since its 1999 IPO — a ninth would be a record.
RXRX — buy dip 4.49 · stop 4.06 · 2.9% away — touched 4.40 today and bounced; nearest strong dip.
BBD (Banco Bradesco) — buy dip 4.29 · stop 4.19 · 3.7% away — strong Brazil bank, still above its level.
XP (XP) — buy dip 27.42 · stop 25.84 · 7.6% away — up 5.4% again today; needs a real pullback.
| Ticker | Price | Trigger | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| $RXRX | 4.63 | 4.49 | 5.36 |
| $PTC | 193.00 | 193.99 | 198.12 |
| $ITUB | 10.13 | 10.00 | 10.38 |
Leading: Utilities +2.92%, Industrials +1.56%, Real Estate +1.35%, Consumer Discretionary +1.19%, Consumer Staples +0.81%, Technology +0.60%, Financials +0.35%, Materials +0.35%, Energy +0.24%
Lagging: Health Care -0.10%, Communication Services -0.58%
Utilities were both the best sector and the money leader: about $2.1 billion went in, more than any other group, led by CEG (about $3.9 billion traded) and VST ($2.9 billion). Energy traded $1.6 billion on only a 0.24% gain, and health care saw the largest outflow at $1.2 billion. Single-stock money was in chips: AMD $15.5 billion, MRVL $14.7 billion and AVGO $11.5 billion, with NBIS at $5.1 billion on a 7.8% gain. Underneath, the largest orders net sold $1.3 billion of SPY and $185 million of QQQ, while mid-size orders were net buyers.
After the bell the movers were guidance stories: NEOG +8.8% on a raised sales outlook, PENG +5.5% on a fiscal 2027 profit range well above estimates, and ZIM +4.7% on higher earnings guidance. The losers were small: STZ -2.8% after a $75M deal and WS -2.0% on an earnings miss, with XHG -9.2% the only big drop. The regular session's biggest winners were FCEL +14.3%, CIEN +14.0%, CTVA +12.2% and VST +10.6%, listed after the after-hours gainers. Guidance raises, not beats, are what moved stocks tonight.
FCEL is the strongest setup on the board, up 14.3% on about twice its usual volume, and VST carries the most money at $2.9 billion on the Google nuclear news. NBIS (+7.8%, $5.1 billion) and ASTS (+7.8% on a contract) round out a list built on power, AI and space names.
No changes since pre-market: the 8:25 AM read had no buy levels to track.
A 4.3% drop in oil overnight is lifting everything: SPY is up 1.05% at 777.69, already above Monday's 776.61 high and well clear of its 21-day average at 766.43. QQQ leads at +1.35% to 759.67, above its 756.92 high, and IWM is up 1.03%, so small caps are keeping pace instead of lagging. The open's first job is to hold those prior highs; a gap of this size on no rate relief is easy to give back if 776.61 fails.
The money that matters most pointed the other way into this gap: large orders sold a net $2.2 billion of SPY on Monday after $1.5 billion on Friday, while QQQ big-order flow was flat. At the stock level, NVDA (about $30 billion), TSLA ($15.9 billion) and MSFT ($14.0 billion) still take the most money, and CEG stands out at $942 million on a 9.1% gain. Brazilian lenders and brokers (XP +30.9%, INTR +19.7%, BBD +18.7%, ITUB +14.7%) and deal names like PTC (+33.6% on a $22.6 billion takeover) carry the biggest single-stock moves.
Participation is strong: 7 in 10 stocks are up, 145 are up 4% or more against 70 down, and new highs lead lows 304 to 135. Yet only 33% of stocks are above their 40-day average, so the average stock is still oversold under an index near its highs. VIX is flat at 15.56 and gold is up with stocks, so there is no fear bid, while TLT slipping 0.18% says bonds are not buying the oil story. Oversold breadth plus a held gap usually means a multi-day catch-up for laggards; a gap that fails at 776.61 would leave the oversold reading intact.
Since pre-market: TWLO dipped through its buy level, HIT; NVDL is 1.4% and XP 5.9% from their levels; SWKS slipped back under its buy level.
The gap held and power took over: Google's 20-year Constellation deal sent CEG up 13.5% and VST up 9.2%, with utilities up 1.84%. SPY is at 779.13, up 0.55% and $2.52 above Monday's 776.61 high, and QQQ at 760.35 holds over its 756.92 high. IWM is the exception, down 0.50% at 281.96 and under Monday's 283.38 close.
Utilities took about $667M, the most of any sector, and health care lost the most at $405M. Chips carry the dollars: NVDA $5.9B, MRVL $4.8B, AMD $3.9B. Large orders net bought about $150M each of SPY and QQQ, after net selling $2.2B of SPY Monday and $1.5B Friday.
7 in 10 stocks are up, 378 have gained 4% or more against 163 down that much, and new highs lead new lows 546 to 146. Only 1 in 3 stocks is above its 40-day average, so this is a bounce from washed-out levels. VIX at 15.37 and a soft USO say no one is hedging, and broad days from this depth usually carry if the index holds its breakout.
Since the morning session: TWLO fell through its 287.10 stop and is OUT.
Power and chips still drive it: the Google–Constellation deal keeps CEG up 13.8% and MRVL is up 6.3% after its investor day. SPY at 780.51 is up 0.73% and $3.90 over Monday's 776.61 high. QQQ at 761.17 holds $4.25 above its 756.92 high. IWM at 282.27 is still down 0.39% and under Monday's 283.38 close; small caps missed the move.
Utilities took the most sector money, about $1.1B. Chips carry the stock-level dollars: NVDA $11.2B, AMD $9.3B, MRVL $8.9B. Large orders have net sold about $200M of SPY today while net buying about $190M of QQQ.
About 7 in 10 stocks are up and new highs lead lows 678 to 174, yet only 1 in 3 is above its 40-day average, still oversold. VIX fell 3.1% to 15.04 while TLT and GLD rose with stocks, so nobody is paying for protection. Oversold breadth under a rising index usually means laggards catch up over several days, unless the 1:00 PM auction lifts yields.
No changes since midday.
The 1:00 PM 3-year auction cleared at 4.932%, almost half a point over last time, and it split the market by size. SPY at 779.94 is up 0.66%, $3.33 over Monday's 776.61 high, and QQQ holds $3.91 above its 756.92 high. IWM slid from down 0.39% at midday to down 0.70% at 281.40, under Monday's 283.38 close.
Utilities took about $1.5B and energy $1.2B, helped by Energy Transfer's $2.6B Vaquero deal. Chips carry the stock dollars: MU $13.5B, MRVL $11.9B on its $90B revenue target, AMD $11.2B. Health care lost about $950M. Large orders have net sold about $490M of SPY, up from $200M at midday, while buying $150M of QQQ.
New highs lead lows 694 to 193, but stocks down 4% or more have climbed to 430 against 492 up. VIX is down 3.0% and TLT up 0.46%, so bonds and options ignored the auction even as small caps did not. Oversold breadth usually catches up, but rising big-order selling into a strong index is how a pause starts.
Since power hour: NVDL and MELI closed without breaking their 10:00 highs, so both drop off; every other pick kept its status.
Power and chips carried the close. Google's nuclear agreements sent CEG up 12.1% and VST 10.6%, and Marvell's $20B revenue target lifted MRVL 5.9%. SPY finished at 779.48, up 0.60% and $2.87 above Monday's 776.61 high, and QQQ closed at 759.88 over its 756.92 high. IWM never recovered from the 3-year auction at 4.93% and closed down 0.74% at 281.27, under Monday's 283.38 close.
Utilities took about $2.1 billion, the most of any sector, while health care lost the most at $1.2 billion. Chips carried the single-stock dollars: AMD $15.5 billion, MRVL $14.7 billion, AVGO $11.5 billion. The largest orders net sold $1.3 billion of SPY, after $2.2 billion Monday and $1.5 billion Friday, while mid-size orders bought $334 million, so the rally ran on smaller hands.
About 6 in 10 stocks rose and new highs led new lows 677 to 189, but 514 stocks fell 4% or more against 458 that rose that much. Only 1 in 3 is above its 40-day average, oversold under an index at its high. VIX fell to 15.06 and gold rose with stocks, so nobody is paying for protection. That mix usually resolves with laggards catching up over a few days, unless the big-order selling breaks SPY 776.61 first.
Today's picks: PTC hit its buy level and held it; TWLO and WK are OUT; NVDL and MELI never broke out; RXRX is 2.9% and ITUB 1.3% away.
PTC — buy dip 193.99 · stop 191.92 · HIT — sits on its level, stop 0.6% below.
CEG (Constellation Energy) — buy dip 300.40 · stop 291.00 · HIT — Google nuclear deal, about $3.9B traded.
ITUB — buy dip 10.00 · stop 9.81 · 1.3% away — up 2.2% with the Brazilian banks.
FRSH (Freshworks) — buy dip 14.02 · stop 13.66 · HIT — at its level, about four times normal volume.
TWLO — OUT: closed at 280.21, under its 287.10 stop.
WK — OUT: closed at 70.14, through its 71.58 stop.
TMO (Thermo Fisher Scientific) — OUT: 656.58, under its 671.69 stop.
IDT (IDT) — MISS: 11.3% past its 72.13 buy level.
Wed 10:30 AM — EIA crude stocks — oil rose 0.74% into it.
Wed 1:00 PM — 10-year auction — after the 3-year cleared 4.93%.
Wed 2:00 PM — Fed minutes — sets the rate tone for small caps.
Wed — APLD earnings — tests the AI-power trade after CEG's day.
Thu 8:30 AM — jobless claims — 200,000 expected after 197,000.
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