Selling under a flat index. Soft inflation kept QQQ up 0.4% on GOOGL's 4.4% jump, but six in ten stocks fell and new lows hit 553 against 116 highs. No name on the breakout list set up for the breakout today.
With only 1 in 4 stocks above its 40-day average the tape is oversold, and MU's beat tonight could spark a bounce. Another day of 500-plus new lows would confirm the selling is spreading, not ending.
SPY 765.30, its 21-day average, decides it: a close back above turns oversold breadth into a bounce, while a close under its 50-day at 761.16 opens a deeper pullback. If QQQ holds yesterday's 740.58 high after MU's double beat, chip and software leadership survives the open. Thursday's 10:00 AM ISM (55 expected) and Friday's 8:30 AM payrolls (90K expected) then set the rate read that moved bonds lower today.
Softer inflation drove the day: core prices rose 0.2% in August against 0.3% expected, while growth was revised up to 2.2% and Chicago's factory gauge jumped to 58.8 against 51.2. The relief went to software, which outran chips, but bonds fell anyway, with TLT down 0.6%, and the 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 7.3% from 7.12%. Oil rose 1.5% with USO at 145.53 even though crude stocks built 922K barrels, while gold slipped 0.5%, silver 1.7%, and volatility rose 2.8% to 16.49. Stocks, bonds and gold all lower with oil up reads as a rate-and-oil squeeze, not a scramble for safety.
• MU — Micron beat on sales and profit after the close, $33.42 a share against $31.72, and sees an even stronger year with server units growing high-teens in 2026 and 2027 — the opening read for every chip name Thursday.
• Inflation — core prices up 0.2% against 0.3% expected; software outran chips on it, with IGV ahead of SOXX — why QQQ held green.
• SNPS — Synopsys guided fiscal 2027 earnings to $19.04-$19.12 against $17.32 expected — up 4.7% on $1.9B, about twice normal volume.
• VICR — Vicor expects third-quarter revenue above $186.4M against $165.5M expected — up 10.2%, the day's top gainer.
• SMMT — Summit extended gains after AstraZeneca's $2.0B equity investment — biotech money chasing a big-pharma backer.
• CALM — Cal-Maine lost $1.26 a share against $0.77 expected on low egg prices and higher costs — staples were the worst group.
• FDS — FactSet beat at $4.52 against $4.35 on record subscription growth and called 2026 margins the floor.
• BA — Ethiopian Airlines ordered eight 777-8 and two 777 Freighters.
IOVA — buy dip 14.04 · stop 12.78 · SOON — top-strength name, bought only on a pullback to 14.04.
MDB — buy dip 335.00 · stop 321.00 · SOON — traded 4.5 times normal volume Tuesday; dip entry only.
| Ticker | Price | Trigger | Target | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $IOVA | — | 14.04 | 16.56 | — |
| $GOOGL | 351.97 | 352.60 | 384.48 | Stage 3A |
| $CVX | 204.33 | 206.83 | 217.78 | Stage 2B |
Leading: Technology +0.82%
Lagging: Energy -0.26%, Consumer Discretionary -0.28%, Utilities -0.35%, Communication Services -0.38%, Materials -1.02%, Industrials -1.11%, Financials -1.13%, Real Estate -1.16%, Health Care -1.35%, Consumer Staples -1.39%
Financials lost the most money, $3.0B traded as the group fell 1.13%, followed by utilities at $2.2B and health care at $2.0B, both lower. Technology was the only group up, 0.82% on $1.8B, so the percentage leader ranked just fourth in dollars. The biggest single stock was NVDA at $26.6B, up 0.5%, while GOOGL did the lifting at $11.8B and up 4.4%, and MRNA drew the heaviest selling at $3.8B, down 5.7%. Large orders put a net $1.3B into SPY and pulled $1.6B out of QQQ — big money bought the broad index and sold the one that closed green.
Only three names cleared the gainers screen, led by VICR up 10.2% after guiding third-quarter revenue above $186.4M against $165.5M expected. The losers are small caps and offering names: GOW fell 10.1% on about three times normal volume and PYXS 3.8% on six times normal after gapping down 18.1%. MU reported its beat after the close, but no after-hours price is in the data yet, so these are regular-session moves.
SNPS is the strongest setup, up 4.7% on $1.9B and about twice normal volume after raising its fiscal 2027 outlook. ZETA rose 8.8% on nearly twice normal volume and is the only name here with top-tier strength, while GEN added 5.6% on $425M. Software, not chips, filled the list, matching the day's rotation.
First read of the session.
Cooler inflation drove the open: core prices up 0.2% in August against 0.3% expected, growth revised up to 2.2%, and ADP hiring at 90K. SPY is 767.28, back above its 21-day average at 765.58 and yesterday's 766.98 high; QQQ is 740.72, clearing its own prior high of 740.58 and well above its 21-day at 726.87. IWM is up 0.4% at 281.13, so small caps are joining rather than lagging.
The money went to havens and yield before it went to stocks: gold up 2.2%, utilities the top group with LNT up 7.6% on $249M, and energy the biggest seller as oil fell 3.1%. In stocks, NVDA leads money traded at $23.3B and AAPL at $12.7B. Yesterday's large orders put about $3.0B net into SPY and pulled $1.8B net out of QQQ, so big buyers were adding the broad index while trimming tech.
Underneath, the tape is still sick: 218 new lows against 57 new highs, and only 1 in 4 stocks above its 40-day average. Volatility is flat at 16.09 and bonds fell even on soft inflation, so this is not a fear bid — it is a relief bid that has not reached most stocks. From this oversold a bounce usually follows, but it needs new highs to expand to be trusted.
Since pre-market: ASX hit its buy level at 10:00; KMX is OUT under 58.03; CVX slipped under its buy level; DELL, MRVL, AMAT sit below their 10:00 highs.
A 58.8 Chicago factory reading, against 51.2 expected, stacked on soft inflation and lifted the index after the open. SPY is 767.72, up 0.5%, holding above yesterday's 766.98 high and its 21-day average at 765.88; QQQ is up 0.7% at 742.80, well clear of its 740.58 prior high. IWM gave back its early gain and is flat at 279.15, so small caps have stopped joining in.
The money is in the largest names: NVDA leads at $4.6B traded, AAPL is up 2.8% on $2.3B and GOOGL up 3.2% on $2.1B,. Health care saw the most sector money, $687M, as it fell, dragged by MRNA down 6.5% on $1.4B. Large orders are slightly net buyers of QQQ (+$80M) and sellers of SPY (−$63M) so far, a small reversal of yesterday's $2.9B into SPY.
Underneath, 61% of stocks are up and 4%-plus gainers outnumber losers two to one, but new lows grew to 268 from 218 before the open, against 85 highs. Only 1 in 4 stocks is above its 40-day average, and calm volatility at 15.92 with slipping bonds marks a growth bid. Oversold tapes like this usually bounce, but until new lows start shrinking the rally belongs to a handful of mega caps.
No changes since the morning session.
Soft inflation and a hot Chicago factory reading still drive the session, but the lift has narrowed to the largest names. SPY is 767.85, up 0.5%, holding above yesterday's 766.98 high and its 21-day average at 765.89; QQQ is up 0.7% at 743.33, well clear of its 740.58 prior high. IWM is up just 0.2% at 279.52 and DIA is down 0.1%, so this is a Nasdaq rally.
NVDA leads at $9.5B traded, AAPL is up 2.4% on $5.9B and GOOGL up 3.0% on $4.7B, while META trades $6.0B, slightly lower. Sector dollars are leaving: financials, utilities and health care traded $4.3B combined, all down, against $870M in technology. Large orders are net sellers, about $300M out of SPY, after buying $2.9B yesterday.
Underneath, the tape is weakening: new lows jumped to 386 from 268 at the morning read against 129 highs, and advancers now lead only 54% to 46%. Only 1 in 4 stocks sits above its 40-day average and volatility is calm at 15.90. An index rising over rising lows usually gives back its gain unless the giants hold into the close.
No changes since the midday session.
A report at 2:23 PM that Iran appears to have struck a major UAE oil field added an oil shock to a day built on soft inflation and a hot Chicago factory reading. SPY has faded to 766.23, up 0.3%, slipping under yesterday's 766.98 high but still above its 21-day average at 765.72. QQQ holds up 0.6% at 742.62, clear of its 740.58 prior high, while IWM is flat at 278.98 and DIA is down 0.4%.
The same five giants carry the tape: NVDA at $13.1B traded, AAPL up 2.1% on $7.5B, GOOGL up 2.5% on $5.9B and MSFT up 1.8% on $5.4B. Energy took $968M as XOM rose 1.8%, while financials, utilities and health care traded $5.1B combined on the way down. Large orders sold about $650M of SPY and $480M of QQQ.
Underneath, the tape keeps deteriorating: new lows reached 507 against 131 highs, up from 386 at midday, and decliners now outnumber advancers. Only 1 in 4 stocks is above its 40-day average, and volatility at 15.98 barely reacted to the oil news while gold and silver fell. Giants over expanding lows usually give back ground unless they close strong.
Since power hour: META and ASX slipped back under their 10:00 highs, and no breakout-list name closed through its level on volume.
Soft inflation, core prices up 0.2% against 0.3% expected, carried the open, then the index faded through the afternoon as oil rose 1.5% and bonds fell. SPY closed at 763.31, down 0.1%, back under its 21-day average at 765.30 and yesterday's 766.98 high, but above its 50-day at 761.16. QQQ held up 0.4% at 741.03, just over its 740.58 prior high, while DIA lost 0.8% and IWM 0.3%. SPY traded 59.8M shares, about a third more than usual, so the fade came on real volume.
Money left almost every group: financials traded $3.0B, utilities $2.2B and health care $2.0B, all lower, while technology was the only group up, on $1.8B. NVDA led single stocks at $26.6B, GOOGL carried the Nasdaq with a 4.4% gain on $11.8B, and MRNA fell 5.7% on $3.8B. Large orders put a net $1.3B into SPY and pulled $1.6B from QQQ, reversing the direction of the index moves.
Underneath, 6,678 stocks fell against 4,079 that rose, and 4%-plus losers outnumbered 4%-plus gainers 443 to 362. New lows grew to 553 against 116 highs, from 507 at power hour, and only 1 in 4 stocks sits above its 40-day average. Volatility rose to 16.49 while gold and silver fell, so nothing was bought for safety. Oversold tapes like this usually bounce within days, but only after new lows stop growing.
Today's picks: none broke out on volume — MRVL closed 0.3% under its 10:00 high, AMAT 0.8%, ASX 0.9%, META 1.1%, DELL 2.8%; KMX is OUT.
GOOGL (Alphabet) — buy above 352.60 · stop 343.01 · 0.2% away — up 4.4% on $11.8B, closed just under its level.
CVX (Chevron) — buy above 206.83 · stop 201.66 · 1.2% away — uptrend pullback on a day oil rose 1.5%.
DELL (Dell Technologies) — buy above 553.48 · stop 514.11 · 2.8% away — top strength, 595.51 prior high overhead.
KMX — OUT: broke its 58.03 dip stop despite a 58% earnings beat.
MRNA (Moderna) — heavy selling: down 5.7% on $3.8B traded.
KORU (Direxion Daily MSCI South Korea Bull 3X) — down 6.2%, just 1.6% above its 19.68 stop.
CAPR (Capricor Therapeutics) — two cents above its 9.40 stop despite a 9.9% gain.
Thu open — MU reaction — double beat tests the chip leaders.
Thu 8:30 AM — Jobless claims — 200K expected; last labor read before payrolls.
Thu 10:00 AM — ISM Manufacturing — 55 expected after Chicago's 58.8 surprise.
Thu — NKE and ACN earnings — consumer and services demand read.
Fri 8:30 AM — Payrolls — 90K expected after 162K; sets the rate path.
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