Narrow risk-on. SPY closed at 771.50, above Thursday's 768.95 high, on MSFT and chips while oil fell 2.5%, but new lows beat new highs 594 to 136 and big orders sold about $570 million of SPY.
The rise came on below-average volume and only 1 in 3 stocks sits above its 40-day average. A Monday close back under 768.95 would show the breakout rested on too few names.
SPY 768.95, Thursday's high, is now the floor: holding it lets this oversold market extend its bounce into next week. A close under it points to 765.73, the 21-day average, then 760.79, the 50-day. Wednesday's core PCE, 3.4% expected against 3.3% last time, is the next test for yields, and Friday's payrolls, 100,000 expected against 162,000, the one after.
Falling oil was the day's macro driver: the oil fund dropped 2.5% and energy became the only big group to lose ground while trading the most money of any sector. Business investment surprised on the upside, with core capital goods orders up 1.6% against 0.5% expected, and long bonds slipped 0.2% as yields edged higher. Stocks shrugged it off — SPY rose 0.55%, QQQ 0.51% and DIA 0.94% while IWM managed just 0.14%. Volatility fell 5.3% to 14.84, and gold (+0.3%) and silver (+0.8%) rose with stocks, so nobody paid up for protection into the weekend.
• MSFT — the day's most-traded stock at $19.5 billion, up 3.6%; the headline alongside it was OpenAI's review after a Hugging Face incident, finding most actions were mundane research tasks — it led the mega caps and pulled SPY through Thursday's high.
• PYPL — surged in a move the dashboard tags as deal news, with META and AMZN named in the coverage — up 4.6% on $1.1 billion and through its 54.28 buy level.
• AKAM — Akamai's $11.6 billion deal sent CRWD lower — Akamai rose 3.3% on $3.6 billion, about nine times normal volume, but is sitting just above its stop.
• COST — earnings of $6.75 beat $6.54 despite a $152 million charge from memory-price inflation in electronics — the stock rose 2.9% on $4.2 billion.
• AMD — reached a $1 trillion market value this week — the chip bid showed again in CRDO (+7.4%), TSEM (+7.2%) and MCHP (+5.8%).
• CRCL — its CFO, Jeremy Fox-Geen, will step down by the end of December unless a successor comes sooner — the stock fell 2.4% on $956 million and its 2x long fund lost 11%.
• GME — GameStop fell Friday — its 2x long fund dropped 12.7%, the worst leveraged fund on the board.
• CLSK — raised money through expensive debt and the stock fell — the bitcoin-miner group slid, with the 2x IREN fund down 8.8%.
HUM (Humana) — buy above 388.54 · stop 372.42 · HIT — twice normal volume, highest score on the board.
BE (Bloom Energy) — buy above 292.72 · stop 269.05 · 1.3% away — up 8.4% on $4.9 billion, room to 320.
CRDO (Credo Technology Group) — buy above 214.87 · stop 198.86 · 2.1% away — up 7.4% on $2.4 billion, strongest chip setup.
| Ticker | Price | Trigger | Target | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $HUM | 397.93 | 388.54 | 428.88 | Stage 2A |
| $VLO | 387.18 | 388.92 | 416.66 | Stage 2A |
| $BE | 288.92 | 292.72 | 320.00 | Stage 2A |
Leading: Industrials +1.24%, Technology +0.91%, Materials +0.60%, Health Care +0.58%, Utilities +0.51%, Consumer Staples +0.47%, Financials +0.45%, Consumer Discretionary +0.22%
Lagging: Real Estate -0.22%, Energy -0.80%, Communication Services -0.90%
Energy took the most money of any group, about $2.3 billion, and lost 0.8% — that was selling, not buying, as oil fell. Industrials led at +1.24% on about $1.2 billion, with BE alone trading $4.9 billion, and financials drew the second-largest flow at $1.6 billion for a 0.45% gain. The single biggest stock by money was MSFT at $19.5 billion, more than any whole sector fund, with AAPL next at $10 billion. Large orders tell a split story: they net sold about $570 million of SPY into the rise but net bought about $130 million of QQQ, so the big money wanted tech, not the whole market.
No names are gapping on earnings after the bell — none of this week's reports fall on Friday — so the list below is thin, low-volume small caps: only 3 gainers qualified, all up about 5-6%, led by BIOA (+5.9%). The losers carry the heavier volume: WYY fell 6.4% on over 13 times its usual trade and CRCL slipped 2.4% more on its CFO news. During the regular session the real movers were large: MSFT (+3.6%), COST (+2.9%) and the chip names CRDO, TSEM and MXL (+10%).
The strongest setups are chips and deal stories: CRDO is the strongest chip setup, up 7.4% on $2.4 billion and 2.1% under its buy level, while PYPL closed through its level on $1.1 billion of deal-driven buying. BE traded the most money of any setup at $4.9 billion and sits 1.3% below its buy level, with ON 0.6% away and MCHP already through.
No changes since pre-market.
Bonds sold off again — the 10-year hit 5.11% Wednesday and Thursday's 7-year auction cleared at 5.085% against 4.512% last time — and TLT is down another 1.2% this morning. Stocks are looking straight through it on AI spending: AKAM signed an $11.6 billion cloud deal with Anthropic, SMCI began shipping Vera Rubin racks, and Goldman sees hyperscaler AI spending up 50% to $1.2 trillion. QQQ is up 0.5% at 745.10, above Thursday's 742.66 high, and SPY is up 0.3% at 769.87, above both Thursday's 768.95 high and its 765.17 21-day average. IWM is up just 0.2%, the small-cap lag that rising yields usually produce.
The money is in AI hardware: NVDA and AMD carry the most dollar trading on the board at about $17 billion and $16 billion, ARM is up 4.3% on about $3 billion and SOXL up 4.9% on about $9 billion. AKAM is up 15.2% on about $850 million and GLND up 15.2% on about $770 million. Energy took the most sector-fund money premarket, about $3.8 million, and still fell 0.5%. Large orders sold Thursday — a net $450 million out of SPY and $180 million out of QQQ — reversing Wednesday's $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion of buying.
Early breadth is broad — 2,365 stocks up against 877 down, 193 up 4% or more against 75 down — but the longer picture is weak: 459 new lows against 82 new highs, and only about 1 in 3 stocks above its 40-day average. That oversold reading usually produces bounces like this one; whether it sticks depends on the new lows shrinking. VIX is down 0.8% at 15.55 while gold and oil firm, so nobody is paying for protection even as bonds slide. The risk to this open is rates.
No changes since pre-market.
The bounce has stalled at the line: SPY is 767.74, just under Thursday's 768.95 high, and QQQ 741.65, a point under its 742.66 high. Bonds kept selling, TLT down 0.6%, and Michigan's 4.6% inflation expectations gave yields no relief. IWM is down 0.3%, so higher rates are landing on small caps while the index holds above its 21-day line at 765.30.
The money sits in a few mega caps: MSFT has traded $4.5 billion and is up 2.5%, COST $1.2 billion on its beat, BE and AKAM over $1 billion each. Energy is the loser, about $540 million out as oil falls 1.3%. Large orders in SPY are net buyers by about $260 million, reversing Thursday's selling, while QQQ is even.
Beneath the index the tape is getting weaker: new lows grew from 459 before the open to 681, against 90 new highs. Only 1 in 3 stocks is above its 40-day average, a level that usually precedes a bounce once new lows stop expanding. The VIX is flat at 15.66 and gold barely lower, so this is steady selling, not panic — usually a range day until SPY clears 768.95 or loses 765.30.
Since the morning read: MXL ran through its buy level and is now too stretched to buy; every other name kept its status.
Microsoft carried the market through its test: MSFT is up 3.7% on $9.2 billion after the Copilot overhaul, and SPY at 771.63 is above Thursday's 768.95 high, the morning's deciding level. QQQ at 745.20 cleared Thursday's 742.66 too, the pairing that usually extends an oversold bounce. IWM is up 0.5%, so small caps are joining.
Money left energy, $1.4 billion traded on a 1.3% drop, and went to chips: QCOM up 5.6% on $1.7 billion, CRDO up 5.2% on $1.1 billion, SOXL trading $5.0 billion. BE drew $2.8 billion and DELL $2.6 billion. The warning is large orders: net buyers of SPY by $270 million but net sellers of QQQ by $940 million.
Wide but thin: 6 in 10 stocks are up, yet new lows beat new highs 706 to 112, wider than this morning. Only 1 in 3 stocks is above its 40-day average and volatility fell to 14.86. Oversold markets with falling volatility usually bounce for a few days, but only shrinking new lows would prove it is broadening.
No changes since midday.
Microsoft and chips kept the index above the line that mattered. SPY at 771.29 is holding over Thursday's 768.95 high, well clear of its 21-day average at 765.69, and QQQ at 745.00 stays above Thursday's 742.66. IWM has faded from +0.5% at midday to +0.1%, so small caps have stopped joining.
The buying is concentrated: MSFT alone traded $13.4 billion, and SOXL $6.5 billion, with BE and DELL near $3.7 billion each. Energy is the biggest seller at about $1.9 billion traded on a 1.25% drop as oil fell 3.1%. Large-order buying of SPY, $270 million at midday, is now flat; QQQ saw about $850 million net sold.
Under the surface it is getting worse, not better. New lows rose to 773 against 123 new highs, more stocks are down 4%+ than up, and only 1 in 3 is above its 40-day average. With VIX at 14.95 an oversold bounce is still likely, but new lows must shrink to confirm it.
Since power hour: AKAM moved from OUT back above its reset 113.84 stop; every other pick kept its status.
SPY held its breakout into the bell, closing at 771.50 — above Thursday's 768.95 high and every short and long average, with the 21-day at 765.73. QQQ finished at 744.59, clear of Thursday's 742.66 high, while IWM gained only 0.14%, so the move stayed a large-cap one. MSFT was the engine at +3.6%, and falling oil gave the rest of the market a tailwind on costs.
Money went to tech and industrials and came out of energy: MSFT traded $19.5 billion and AAPL $10 billion, while energy's $2.3 billion was the most of any sector on a 0.8% loss. BE ($4.9 billion), DELL ($4.9 billion) and CRDO ($2.4 billion) led the setups. Large orders net sold about $570 million of SPY but net bought about $130 million of QQQ, a vote for tech over the broad index.
Underneath, the market is still washed out: 594 new lows against 136 new highs, and only 30.9% of stocks above their 40-day average. Volatility fell to 14.84 and gold and silver rose alongside stocks, so there was no hedging into the weekend. Readings this oversold with the index at a breakout usually resolve in a catch-up bounce for the laggards — or a breakout that reverses if Monday gives back 768.95.
Today's picks: PYPL held through its buy level; VLO closed 0.4% short, BE 1.3% and CRDO 2.1% away; none of them touched its stop.
VLO (Valero Energy) — buy above 388.92 · stop 369.24 · 0.4% away — green while oil fell 2.5%.
TSEM (Tower Semiconductor) — buy above 235.67 · stop 221.22 · 1.1% away — up 7.2%, strong group, near-perfect relative strength.
PYPL (PayPal Holdings) — buy above 54.28 · stop 52.20 · HIT — deal-driven surge on $1.1 billion.
ON (ON Semiconductor) — buy above 77.68 · stop 73.48 · 0.6% away — up 5.5%, chip bounce off its 20-day line.
MXL (MaxLinear) — EXT: up 10% in a day, too stretched to place a stop.
AIFF (Firefly Neuroscience) — EXT: up 77% on data news, no sensible stop.
USDE (StablecoinX) — EXT: stop sits 22% under price.
AKAM (Akamai Technologies) — 0.15% above its 113.84 stop: one bad tick from failing.
Mon open — SPY vs 768.95 — whether Friday's breakout holds.
Tue 10:00 AM — job openings — 7.23 million expected.
Wed 8:15 AM — ADP payrolls — 70,000 expected vs 38,000.
Wed 8:30 AM — core PCE — 3.4% expected; the Fed's inflation gauge.
Fri Oct 2 8:30 AM — payrolls — 100,000 expected vs 162,000.
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